INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY (ICT) INVESTMENT, PRODUCTIVITY AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This paper analyses how investments in information and communication technologies (ICT) have contributed to productivity growth and structural transformation in Uzbekistan over the period 2000–2024. Using sectoral national accounts (value-added, employment, gross fixed capital formation), World Bank / ITU ICT indicators and UNIDO manufacturing statistics, the study applies a transparent, non-technical three-stage approach: sectoral growth-decomposition, sector × year panel associations of ICT intensity with productivity dynamics, and input–output structural decomposition to separate within-sector gains from inter-sectoral resource shifts. Key findings: (1) Uzbekistan’s rapid expansion of digital access and infrastructure provides a favourable environment for ICT diffusion; (2) sectors that accumulated higher ICT intensity show stronger productivity gains and modest evidence of value-added upgrading; (3) policy complementarities — digital skills, e-government, and trade facilitation — materially strengthen ICT’s impacts. The paper concludes with actionable policy recommendations to accelerate inclusive structural upgrading. Technical appendix and code available upon request.