IQLIM O'ZGARISHLARI SSЕNARIYLARI ASOSIDA HOSILDORLIKNI BASHORAT QILISH VA EKINLARNI OPTIMAL JOYLASHTIRISH MASALASI XORAZM VILOYATINING BOG’OT TUMANI MISOLIDA.
Keywords:
iqlim o‘zgarishi, hosildorlik bashorati, optimallashtirish, Bog‘ot tumani, qishloq xo‘jaligi, ekinlarni joylashtirish, agroiqlimiy tahlil.Abstract
Mazkur ilmiy ishda Xorazm viloyatining Bog‘ot tumani misolida iqlim o‘zgarishlari ssenariylari asosida qishloq xo‘jaligi ekinlarining hosildorligi bashorat qilish, ekinlarni optimal joylashtirish masalasi o‘rganilgan. Tadqiqotda 2010–2023 yillarga oid agroiqlimiy va hosildorlik ma’lumotlari asosida GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) dasturi yordamida ko‘p omilli regressiya modeli tuzilgan hamda ekinlar joylashtirilishini optimallashtiruvchi model ishlab chiqilgan. 2030 va 2050 yillar uchun IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) tavsiya etgan SSP2-4.5 va SSP5-8.5 ssenariylari doirasida hosildorlik o‘zgarishlari prognoz qilingan.
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