PRINCIPLES OF USING TIME SERIES MODELS IN ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF AGRICULTURAL CLUSTER SYSTEMS
Keywords:
Agrocluster, econometric modeling, time series, ARIMA, VAR, LSTM, forecasting, price volatility, agricultural economics, supply chain.Abstract
This article analyzes the principles of using time series models in econometric modeling of agrocluster systems. The effectiveness of ARIMA, VAR, and LSTM models in forecasting production volumes, price dynamics, and supply chains in agroclusters is studied. The results of the study showed that the use of time series models is important for optimizing, reducing risks, and effectively organizing strategic decision-making processes in agrocluster systems.
Downloads
References
Ketels, C. (2013), Recent research on competitiveness and clusters: What are the implications for regional policy? Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 269-284. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rst008
Baltagi, B. H. (2017), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 6th ed. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. [Online]. Available: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-53953-5/cover
Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018), Forecasting: Principles and Practice. OTexts. [Online]. Available: https://otexts.com/fpp3/decomposition.html
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2016), Introduction to Econometrics, 4th ed. Pearson. https://www.pearson.com/en-us/subject-catalog/p/introduction-to-econometrics/P200000006421/9780136879787
Goodfellow, I., Bengio, Y., & Courville, A. (2016), Deep Learning. MIT Press. Available: https://www.deeplearningbook.org/
Juraev, F. D. S. (2021). Problems Of Informatization Of Management Of Agricultural Industry And Modeling Of Agriconomic System In A Market Economy. The American Journal of Applied sciences, 3(02), 49-54.
Juraev, F. D., Mallaev, A. R., Aralov, G. M., Ibragimov, B. S., & Ibragimov, I. (2023). Algorithms for improving the process of modeling complex systems based on big data: On the example of regional agricultural production. In E3S Web of Conferences (Vol. 392, p. 01050). EDP Sciences. // https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202339201050
Mukhitdinov, K. S., & Juraev, F. D. Methods of Macroeconomic Modeling. International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD), e-ISSN, 2456-6470
Жўраев, Ф. Д., & Аралов, Ғ. М. (2023). Қишлоқ хўжалиги маҳсулотлари ишлаб чиқариш жараёнини эконометрик моделлаштириш заруриятининг асосий жиҳатлари. Educational research in universal sciences, 2(2), 36-43.
Jo‘rayev, F. (2023). Agroklaster tizimini optimallashtirish usullari: noaniqlikni algoritm va model yordamida minimallashtirish. Iqtisodiyot va taʼlim, 24(6), 306-314. / https://doi.org/10.55439/ECED/vol24_iss6/%25x
